GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2007-02 > 1171575387


From: "Roberta J. Estes" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA
Date: Thu, 15 Feb 2007 16:36:27 -0500
In-Reply-To: <200702151853.l1FIqi3l026168@mail.rootsweb.com>


Thanks to Orin Wells and Ann Turner, the powerpoint slides are now up in two
places.

http://www.genealogydna.org/presentations/mutation_rates.ppt

http://www.dnaheritage.com/files/rootswebupload/MutationRates.ppt

I snipped these from the larger presentation. Here is what I was trying to
convey.

The Estes surname project is significantly larger than this, but when I
prepared this chart, I used only proven genealogies, not ones where I know
they connect but exactly how is "fuzzy", because I needed to know the number
of transmission events that had occurred.

On the page labeled 458, which is the marker number being discussed, Abraham
is the founder and his DNA has been triangulated. I have people upstream
from him due to other people testing. I know those folks descend from his
uncle and grandfather, but some of the "inbetween" genealogy is fuzzy,
mostly due to the fact that this Northern group of Esteses has has minimal
research and has no active researchers now, hence, the people who tested
didn't send me their complete genealogies, so I can't use them in this
analysis, so I can't count back any further generations from Abraham for
this analysis.

Abraham's trangulated allele count is 18.

Abraham's sons are listed and the number of mutation opportunities is the
first number in the box. Looking at Abraham Jr., there are 10 mutation
opportunities for the one person who tested, and the allele count is 18.
That is true for both of the people who descend from Abraham Jr. Moving on
to Moses, I have him broken down further because I go on later in the
presenation to discuss this group in more detail, but as you can see, there
are 5 proven descendants here and one of them has a an upward mutation and
one has a downward mutation.

You get the idea. So there are 3 mutations of a combined number of mutation
opportunities of 160, for 2%. I'm assuming here of course that the mutation
to 17 is a one time mutation that occurred some place upstream and is
carried down as a line marker mutation.

For marker 391, Abraham Sr. is 12, and you can see there are 8 mutations out
of 160 possible events, all downward mutations.

The interesting thing for both of these mutations is how many individual
lines they occurred in independently.

I surely have to wonder why these alleles are "predisposed" (or maybe
"inclined" for lack of another word) to mutation downward, in the case of
391.

Roberta





-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Roberta J. Estes
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 1:53 PM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA

Yes, Ken, I did about a year ago and it was discussed. However, I would be
glad to do so again. I have some powerpoint slides I can submit that would
make things infinately easier to see visually if someone has a location
where we could post them to look at them to discuss.

Roberta

-----Original Message-----
From:
[mailto:] On Behalf Of Ken Nordtvedt
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 10:59 AM
To:
Subject: Re: [DNA] TMRCA


----- Original Message -----
From: "Roberta J. Estes" <>

> In the Estes project, there are two specific markers that are mutating
> at an extremely high rate, one mutates at 500 times the expected rate
> and one at 250 times the expected rate.


Have you presented the evidence for the above to this list? Ken



-------------------------------
To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to
with the word 'unsubscribe' without the
quotes in the subject and the body of the message



-------------------------------
To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to
with the word 'unsubscribe' without the
quotes in the subject and the body of the message


This thread: