GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-03 > 1204663058


From: "Ken Nordtvedt" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Central Limit Theorem in Action
Date: Tue, 4 Mar 2008 13:37:38 -0700
References: <013801c87d66$d40ce450$6400a8c0@Ken1><REME20080303195544@alum.mit.edu><47CDA27D.4080506@ucl.ac.uk><00fc01c87e31$8a7d64b0$6400a8c0@Ken1><3b2a446a0803041229l4e5a2d12tbce7259f9e0b9441@mail.gmail.com>


You have probably gone overboard in your conclusion of helplessness. Some
features of population history can probably be determined from present
properties of the population, albeit with confidence intervals of
uncertainty, but more and more specific details of population history will
produce diminished imprints on today's population. It's our job to find out
what aspects of the history we can estimate and what we can not.
Incidently, the quote you start your message with are my words. Ken


----- Original Message -----
From: "Sasson Margaliot" <>
To: <>
Sent: Tuesday, March 04, 2008 1:29 PM
Subject: Re: [DNA] Central Limit Theorem in Action


>> "there's more to a
>> population history than its total age".
>>
>>
>
> There are MANY MANY various population histories consistent with present
> day
> observable haplotype distribution, and every calculation,
> using as sophisticated mathematical apparatus as it may be, is only as
> good
> as the set of unproven assumptions (about population history) it is based
> on.
>
> In other words, as long as the population history remains UNKNOWN, it
> simply
> cannot be reconstructed from today's STR data, and "calculated" TMRCA has
> no
> scientific standing whatsoever, except maybe as an exercise in advanced
> mathematics.
>
>
> Input to the statistical algorithm consists of haplotype data AND
> assumptions about population history, and the second part is result of
> pure
> imagination.
>
>
> Sasson
>
> -------------------------------
> To unsubscribe from the list, please send an email to
> with the word 'unsubscribe' without the
> quotes in the subject and the body of the message
>


This thread: