GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2008-03 > 1204662591


From: "Sasson Margaliot" <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] Central Limit Theorem in Action
Date: Tue, 4 Mar 2008 22:29:51 +0200
References: <013801c87d66$d40ce450$6400a8c0@Ken1><REME20080303195544@alum.mit.edu> <47CDA27D.4080506@ucl.ac.uk><00fc01c87e31$8a7d64b0$6400a8c0@Ken1>
In-Reply-To: <00fc01c87e31$8a7d64b0$6400a8c0@Ken1>


> "there's more to a
> population history than its total age".
>
>

There are MANY MANY various population histories consistent with present day
observable haplotype distribution, and every calculation,
using as sophisticated mathematical apparatus as it may be, is only as good
as the set of unproven assumptions (about population history) it is based
on.

In other words, as long as the population history remains UNKNOWN, it simply
cannot be reconstructed from today's STR data, and "calculated" TMRCA has no
scientific standing whatsoever, except maybe as an exercise in advanced
mathematics.


Input to the statistical algorithm consists of haplotype data AND
assumptions about population history, and the second part is result of pure
imagination.


Sasson

This thread: