GENEALOGY-DNA-L Archives

Archiver > GENEALOGY-DNA > 2003-08 > 1059876556


From: John S Walden <>
Subject: Re: [DNA] mtDNA Plus, enhanced,high resolution test. Odds for a random match
Date: Sat, 02 Aug 2003 22:09:16 -0400
References: <3F2B1B88.5E82A593@yahoo.com> <15c.21d260d6.2c5c6f4f@aol.com>
In-Reply-To: <5.2.1.1.0.20030802125319.020c1558@mail.optonline.net>


At 01:02 PM 8/2/2003 -0400, you wrote:
>At 10:01 PM 8/1/2003 -0400, you wrote:
>>But maybe one would only get a few thousand or 10's of
>>thousands random matches if the HVR2 (refined) test is added-on.
>
>
>For haplogroups J and K they divide in to about 50 sub parts each based on
>HVR1
>Thus I would expect to see about 10 matches in FTDNA data [and I do for my
>two results].
>Since HVR2 is about the same size as HVR1

I think I got this next part wrong with a bit of fuzzy thinking

>I would expect that to divide by another 50.

Since HVR1 and 2 should have the same mutations
and J and K etc are defined by HVR1 the number of mutations
expected should be the FULL HVR2 not just the J or K part.

This will then add another 1000 (or so) not just fifty.

So this
>This will give a match to about 1 in 5 new mtDNA customers of FTDNA,

will change by a factor of 20 to
This will give a match to about 1 in every 100 new mtDNA customers of FTDNA.
This makes a fine match about 20 time rarer than I was thinking earlier.

John W

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