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Archiver > GEN-MEDIEVAL > 1996-10 > 0844526645


From: Christian Feuillet <>
Subject: Re: population growth
Date: Sat, 5 Oct 1996 10:44:05 -0400


>Martin Vlietstra wrote:
>>
>> In article <>, Patrick G Wohlwend
>> <> writes
>> >I read somewhere that the number of people who are alive today is greater
>> >than the total number of people who have lived on earth and died to date.
>> >In short, there are more people alive now than have ever lived before. And
>> >that each susceeding generation from here to the end will be able to make
>> >the same claim, unless the WORLD comes to grips with Zero Population Growth.
>> >
>> >
>> >Is all of this true?
>> >
>>
>>___________________________________________________________________________
>> >
>> > Patrick (Pat) Wohlwend "Every day is a holiday,
>> > 825 No. "Z" St. every meal is a feast,
>> > Lompoc, CA. 93436 every paycheck is a fortune!"
>> > - A Space Marine in "Aliens."
>> > e-mail: "Ain't life great." - me.
>>
>> Untrue.
>>
>> For this to be the case, the world's population would have to double
>> every generation. When England's population was growing at its fastest,
>> (mid 1800's), the rate of increase was of the order of 1.5% per annum or
>> 30-40% per generation.
>>
>> I once heard the figure that one person in 13 who ever lived is
>> currently alive. Speaking from a mathematical point of view, I have no
>> reason to doubt such a statement.
>> --
>> Martin VlietstraI don't think you mean every generation, but every
>lifetime, using your figure of 1 1/2% per year, the
>population would double every 46 to 47 years,
>remember, it is geometric like compound interest.
>If the average lifespan world wide is 47 years then
>it could be true.
>

What one should keep in mind is that there has been very bad epidemies,
famines and constant wars that periodically put the number down, and more to
the point that prevented many people from having a chance to have
descendants because they died young. They were living people, even if they
died babies. The child death rate was much higher than now and that is a
majot twist. This gives, seen from nowdays, a picture of the population of
the past which is smaller than reality. In other words the tiny split
between the population and the total of people alive in the 1980s could be
bigger in the 1940's or 1910s in Europe. And then what about the decenny od
the plague? It certainly reset the clock in a major way. At a planetary
scale those are local events, but other regions have their own troubles:
fire of London, tsunami in Japan, imported diseases in America, drought
episodes in Africa ... those put down the population. Sometimes so much that
the population number is down for a long period of time.

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--------------oOOo-- (_) --oOOo--------------
| |
| Christian FEUILLET |
| Beltsville MD, USA - |
| |
| PLANTS & GENEALOGY |
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